தனது இறுதி மூச்சை இழுக்கும் சிரியா புரட்சி 

2012 ஆம் ஆண்டு முதல் சிரியா புரட்சியின் ஆதரவாளராக இருந்துவந்த எனக்கு இப்படி ஒரு தலையங்கத்தில் கட்டுரை எழுத வேண்டிவரும் என்று நான் ஒருபோதும் நினைத்திருக்கவில்லை. போராட்டத்தின் பின்னணி, அதன் சரி பிழைகளுக்கு அப்பால் சர்வாதிகார அசாத் அரசாங்கம் அகற்றப்பட்டு சிரியா மக்கள் விரும்பிய ஒரு ஜனநாயக ஆட்சி ஏற்படல் வேண்டும் என்பதே எனது நிலைப்பாடாக இருந்து வந்தது.

2012 ஏற்பட்ட மோதல் 2013 ஆம் ஆண்டு கடைசி பகுதிகளில் போராளிகளுக்கு சார்பாக அதியுட்ச நிலையடைந்தது. அனைத்து நகரங்களையும் போராளிகளிடம் பறிகொடுத்திருந்த அசாத் அரசு, எந்தநேரமும் தலைநகர் டமாஸ்கசையும் இழந்து விடும் என்ற ஒருநிலை கூட இருந்தது.

பின்னர் போராளி இயக்கங்களுக்கு இடையிலான உள்மோதல்கள், காட்டிக்கொடுப்புக்கள், வேறருப்புக்கள், பயங்கரவாத இயக்கங்களின் உருவாக்கம் என்று போராட்டம் வேறு பல திசைகளில் பயணிக்க துவங்கி இறுதியில் அசாத் அரசுக்கு எதிரானவர்களே தமக்கு தாங்களே முக்கிய எதிரிகளாக உருவகுத்து கொண்டது ஒருபக்கமும், 2015 ஆம் ஆண்டு ரஷ்யா நேரடியாக களத்தில் இறங்கியதால் ஏற்பட்ட இராணுவ மேலாதிக்கமும் இணைந்ததால் புரட்சி உடைந்து உருக்குலைந்து சிதைந்து தற்போது தனது இறுதி தருவாயை அடைந்திருக்கிறது.

தற்போதைய நிலையில் சிரியாவின் நிலப்பரப்பை கட்டுப்பாட்டுக்குள் வைத்திருக்கும் தரப்புக்களை நோக்கினால் …

 சிரியா அரசாங்கம்- தலைநகரம் டமாஸ்கஸ் உட்பட சிரியாவின் பெரும்பாலான நகரங்கள் மற்றும் நிலப்பரப்புக்கள் சிரியா அரசின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருக்கிறது. (முதலாவது படத்தில் சிகப்பு நிறம்)

 அரசுக்கு எதிரான போராளிகள் – இவர்களிடம் இருவேறு கட்டுப்பாட்டு நிலங்கள் இருக்கின்றன.

ஒன்று- சிரியாவின் வடக்கில் இத்லீப் மாகாணம் மற்றும் அலெப்போ மாகாணத்தின் (அலெப்போ நகரத்தின் அல்ல) சில பகுதிகளோடு துருக்கிய எல்லையோடு அமைந்திருக்கும் பகுதிகள். இந்த பகுதியில் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருக்கும் ஒரேயொரு முக்கிய நகரம், இத்லீப் (Idlib)ஆகும்.

இரண்டு – சிரியாவின் தெற்கில் தர்ஆ மாகாணத்தின் சில பகுதிகளாக ஜோர்தானிய எல்லையோடு அமைந்திருக்கும் பகுதிகள். இந்த பகுதியில் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருக்கும் ஒரேயொரு முக்கிய நகரம், தர்ஆ (Daraa) ஆகும்.
( முதலாவது படத்தில் பச்சை நிறம்)

 குர்திய போராளிகள் – சிரியாவின் வடக்கில் துருக்கிய எல்லைக்கும் யூப்ரடீஸ் நதிக்கும் இடையில் அனேகமாக அனைத்து பகுதிகளும் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருக்கிறது. இந்த பகுதியில் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருக்கும் முக்கிய நகரம் ரக்கா (Raqqa)ஆகும்.
( முதலாவது படத்தில் மஞ்சள் நிறம்)

 ஐஸ்ஐஸ் – குர்திய போராளிகளால் முற்றுமுழுதாக சூழப்பட்ட ஈராக்கின் எல்லையோடு அமைந்திருக்கும் ஒரு பகுதியும். சிரியாவின் தெற்கில் இஸ்ரேலிய எல்லையோடு அமைந்திருக்கும் இன்னுமொரு பகுதியும் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டு பகுதிகளாகும் . குறிப்பிடத்தக்க எந்தவொரு நகரமும் இவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இல்லை. (முதலாவது படத்தில் கருப்பு நிறம் மற்றும் இரண்டாவது படம் )

இரண்டு மாதங்களுக்கு முன்னர், கிழக்கு கூத்தாவில் (Eastern Ghouta) யுத்தம் முடிந்த கையோடு ஜோர்தானிய எல்லையில் போராளிகளிடம் எஞ்சியிருக்கும் தர்ஆ பகுதியை கைப்பற்றுவதற்கு சிரியா இராணுவம் முயற்சிக்கும் என்று பலராலும் எதிர்பார்க்கப்பட்டது. காரணம்

1️⃣ தர்ஆவை கைப்பற்றிவிட்டால் இதற்கு மேலாக போராளிகளுக்கு என்று எஞ்சியிருப்பது வடக்கில் இருக்கும் இத்லீப் மாகாணம் மட்டுமே. இத்லீப் பகுதிகளில் போர் நிறுத்த உடன்படிக்கை அமுலில் இருப்பதால் தற்போது எதுவும் சாத்தியம் இல்லை. எனினும், எதாவது ஒரு காரணத்தால் போர் நிறுத்தம் முறிவடைந்தால் தனது முழு இராணுவ பலத்தையும் பயன்படுத்தி இந்த பகுதிகளை கைப்பற்றி தமது இறுதி வெற்றியை பெற்றுவிடலாம் என்ற சிரியா அரசின் அரசியல் மற்றும் இராணுவ மூலாபாய நோக்கம்.

2️⃣️ஜோர்தானின் எல்லையில் இருக்கும் தர்ஆவை கைப்பற்றிவிட்டால் ஜோர்தானுக்கான தரைவழி பாதை திறக்கப்பட்டு ஜோர்தான் நாட்டுடன் வர்த்தகத்தை ஆரம்பிக்கலாம் என்ற பொருளாதார நோக்கம்.

தெற்கில் இருந்த போராளிகளை பொறுத்தவரை ஆரம்பம் முதலே அரசியல் மற்றும் ஆயுத உதவிகளை ஜோர்தானிடம் இருந்து பெற்றுவந்தவர்கள். இதன் பின்னணியில் அமேரிக்கா இருந்தது. இவர்களுக்கு உதவுவதற்கு அமெரிக்காவும் ஜோர்தானும் இணைந்து Military Operation Center (MOC) என்ற ஒரு நிறுவனத்தை கூட அமைத்திருந்தனர். எனவே இந்த பகுதிகளை கைப்பற்றுவதற்கு அமேரிக்கா- ஜோர்தானிய அரசுகள் அனுமதிக்காது என்றே ஆரம்பத்தில் நம்பப்பட்டது. எனினும் தற்போது ஜோர்தான் நாட்டில் இருக்கும் அசாதாரண நிலை, புதிய அகதிகளின் வருகை என்பவற்றை கவனத்தில் கொண்டு சிரியாவின் துருப்புக்கள் தர்ஆ பகுதிகளில் குவிக்கப்படும் போது ஜோர்தான் எந்தவொரு எதிர்ப்பு சமிக்ஜையையும் காட்டவில்லை. இதில் இன்னொரு விடயமும் கவனிக்கவேண்டி இருக்கிறது. சிரியாவின் புரட்சி முதலில் ஏற்பட்டது ஹுனூன் என்ற தர்ஆவின் பகுதியிலேயாகும். எனவே புரட்சியை ஆரம்பித்து இதுவரை காலமும் தாங்கியவர்கள் இலகுவில் தமது பகுதிகளை சிரியா இராணுவத்திற்கு விட்டுக்கொடுக்க மாட்டார்கள் என்றும் நம்பப்பட்டது.

இன்னொரு விடயத்தையும் இங்கு குறிப்பிட்டாக வேண்டும். அதாவது போராளிகளின் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருந்து சிரியா அரசு மீட்டிருக்கும் பகுதிகள் அனைத்தும் நேரடியான இராணுவ மோதல்கள் /வெற்றிகள் மூலம் கிடைத்தவை அல்ல. பல பகுதிகள் முற்றுகைக்குள் இருந்தததாலும் யுத்தம் செய்வதற்குரிய வளங்கள் இல்லாமலும் சிரியா அரசினால் திணிக்கப்பட்ட ஒப்பந்தம் மூலம் எதிரணியால் “ஒப்படைக்கப்பட்டவை” .
இந்த ஒப்பந்தத்திற்கு “நல்லிணக்க உடன்படிக்கை” (Reconciliation Agreement) என்று பெயர். இதனை முழுவதுமாக மேற்பார்வை செய்வது ரஷ்யா இராணுவம்.

இந்த ஒப்பந்ததில் சில நிபந்தனைகள் இருக்கின்றன.

முதலாவது – யுத்தம் செய்ய விருப்பம் இல்லாதோர், சிரியா இராணுவத்தின் “மன்னிப்பை” ஏற்றுக்கொண்டு சிரியா இராணுவத்துடன் இணையலாம்.

இரண்டாவது- இராணுவத்துடன் இணைய விருப்பம் இல்லாதோர்- தங்களது ஆயுதங்கள் அனைத்தையும் கையளித்துவிட்டு , தங்களது சொந்த இடங்களில் வசிக்கலாம். முன்னாள் போராளிகள் என்ற அடிப்படையில் அதற்குரிய பெர்மிட் வழங்கப்படும்.

மூன்றாவது- இதற்கும் விருப்பம் இல்லாதோர்- தங்களது கனகரக ஆயுதங்களை ஒப்படைத்துவிட்டு சிரியா இராணுவத்திடம் சரணடையவேண்டும் அப்படி சரணடையும் போராளிகள் அவர்களின் குடும்பங்களை பாதுகாப்பாக இத்லீப் மாகாணத்தின் போராளிகளின் கட்டுப்பாட்டு பகுதிகளுக்கு கொண்டுசென்று விடப்படுவார்கள். அதுவே ஐஸ்ஐஸ் ஆக இருந்தால் அவர்களின் கட்டுப்பாட்டு பகுதிகலுக்கு கொண்டு சென்று விடப்படுவார்கள்.

அலெப்போ, கிழக்கு கூத்தா,ஹாமா, ஹோம்ஸ், ஐஸ்ஐஸின் யர்மூக், கலமூன் போன்ற பல பகுதிகள் இந்த ஒப்பந்த அடிப்படையில் சிரியா அரசு வசமனவை.

சரி தர்ஆவுக்கு வருவோம்…

கடந்த ஜூன் 22 ஆம் திகதி தர்ஆவை கைப்பற்றும் இராணுவ ஒபெரஷனை ஆரம்பித்தது சிரியா இராணுவம். இந்த ஒபரேஷன் ஆரம்பிக்க முதலே போராளிகளிடம் சரணடையுமாறு நிபந்தனைகளை விதித்தது . ஆரம்பத்தில் சரணடைய மறுத்த போதும் ஒபரேஷன் ஆரம்பித்தது முதல் படிப்படியாக எந்தவித பாரிய மோதல்களும் இன்றி ஜோர்தானிய எல்லையில் இருக்கும் பெரும்பலான பகுதிகள் சிரியா அரசு வசமானது. இதற்கு மோதலில் ஈடுபட முடியாத நிலை என்ற ஒரு காரணம் போராளிகளுக்கு இருந்தாலும், யுத்தம் வேண்டாம் என்று போராளிகளுக்கு மக்கள் அழுத்தம் கொடுத்ததும் இன்னொரு காரணம். சிரியா மக்களை பொறுத்தவரை இனிமேல் இழப்பதற்கு எதுவும் இல்லை என்ற நிலையில் பிச்சை வேண்டாம் நாயை பிடி என்ற நிலையில் களைத்து போயிருக்கிறார்கள். இதேநேரம் சிரியாவில் இருந்து அகதிகளோ ஆயுத தாரிகளோ வெளியேறாத வண்ணம் ஜோர்தான் தனது எல்லையையும் மூடிவிட்டது. இதனால் பல நகரங்கள் மோதல்கள் இன்றி சிரியா அரசு வசமானது.

ஒப்பந்த அடிப்படையில் பல மில்லியன் டொலர் பெறுமதியான ஆயுதங்கள் சிரியா இராணுவத்திடம் கையளிக்கப்பட்டு இருக்கின்றன. புலிகள் ஒரு காலத்தில் மிகவும் பலமான ஆயுத இயக்கமாக இருந்தபோது அவர்கள் ஒருபோதும் கண்டிராத பல புதிய வகை ஆயுதங்கள் கூட சிரியா போராளிகளிடம் இருந்து, அவை பெட்டிகள் கூட உடைக்காமல் சிரியா இராணுவத்திடம் கையளித்திருக்கிரார்கள். எனினும் இன்னும் தர்ஆ நகரம் முற்றுமுழுதாக கைப்பற்றப்படவில்லை. எந்தநேரமும் தர்ஆவும் ஒப்படைக்கப்படும் என்று எதிர்பார்க்கலாம். ஒப்பந்த அடிப்படையில் பல ஆயிரம் போராளிகள் அவர்கள் குடும்பங்கள் இத்லீபுக்கு கொண்டு சென்று விடப்படுவார்கள்.

ஒருபக்கம் போராளிகளின் நிலை இப்படி இருக்க, சிரியா இராணுவத்தின் அடுத்த இலக்கு இஸ்ரேலிய எல்லையில் இருக்கும் ஐஸ்ஐஸ் கட்டுப்பாடு பகுதி. யர்மூக், கலமூன் பகுதிகளை போல ஐஸ்ஐஸ் இந்த முறை சரணடைவதற்கு வாய்ப்புகள் இல்லை. காரணம், ஐஸ்ஐஸ் ஆயுததாரிகளை கொண்டு சென்று விடுவதற்குரிய ஈராக் எல்லையோரம் அமைந்திருக்கும் பகுதியை குர்திய போராளிகள் சுற்றிவளைத்திருக்கிறார்கள். எனவே ஐஸ்ஐசை பொறுத்தவரை இரண்டு தெரிவுகளே எஞ்சியிருக்கிறது. ஒன்று இறுதிவரை சிரியா இராணுவத்துடன் சண்டையிடுவது, அல்லது இஸ்ரேலுக்குள் தப்பியோடுவது.

இஸ்ரேலும் தனது பாட்டுக்கு சிரியா இராணுவம் தனது எல்லையை நெருங்கவிடாமல் சில தாக்குதல்களை செய்துகொண்டே வருகிறது. எனவே இஸ்ரேல் எல்லையை சிரியா இராணுவம் அண்மிக்கும் போது இஸ்ரேலிய சிரியா மோதல்கள் ஏற்பட்டு இன்னுமொரு யுத்த களம் திறந்தாலும் ஆச்சரியப்படுவதற்கு இல்லை.

எல்லாம் சரி, சிரியாவில் What next என்ற ஒரு கேள்வி எழுந்தால் , விடை இத்லிப் என்பதாகத்தான் இருக்கபோகிறது.

-தில்ஷன் முஹம்மத் ,கொழும்பு .

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